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  • When is it expected to rain

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    Probabilistic Precipitation Portal

    Welcome to the Probabilistic Precipitation Portal, a resource provided by the National Weather Service to communicate the range and probability of possible precipitation amounts over the next 72 hours (3 days).

    Data on this page come from the Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (PQPF) and the Probabilistic Winter Precipitation Forecast (PWPF), which are updated twice daily at the Weather Prediction Center.

    These probabilistic forecasts are derived from a blend of the following:

    • 10 members from the NCEP GEFS ensemble
    • 25 members from the ECMWF ensemble
    • 10 members from the Canadian ensemble
    • 1 member from the NCEP SREF NMMB
    • 2 most recent runs of the NCEP HRRR model
    • 2 most recent runs of the Canadian Regional Model
    • 2 most recent runs of the NCEP NAM 3km CONUS Nest model
    • 4 NCEP Hi-res WRF-ARW model runs
    • NCEP Hi-res FV3LAM model
    • NCEP GFS model
    • ECMWF deterministic model
    • NCEP GEFS ensemble mean
    • NDFD forecast

    This page updates each hour, typically at 25 minutes past the hour.

    Developed by Connor Cozad, Josh Kastman

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